SUNDAY REVIEW / The Ragged Majesty of Slow Horses

Why a fictional band of broken British spies has become the most human show on television 

Some television series arrive with glossy production values and the unmistakable polish of a major marketing push. Slow Horses, now one of the quiet triumphs of Apple TV+, does the opposite. Its world smells faintly of ashtrays, old curry, and the stale sigh of a bureaucracy that has given up on itself. And yet it has become one of the most affecting, most addictive dramas now running. 

Adapted from the Slough House novels by Mick Herron, the series unfolds not in Westminster’s postcard London but in the scuffed geometry of Aldersgate and Clerkenwell. These are the streets around the Barbican, where concrete towers and gray light form a permanent climate. Slough House itself sits on Aldersgate Street, a shabby building inhabited by MI5 agents who have made career-ending errors but remain too skilled—or too troublesome—to fire outright. Its lack of glamour is part of its magnetism. 

Fans regularly describe Slow Horses as the “anti-spy spy show.” Viewer comments echo the admiration: “There’s no glamour,” one wrote, “just damaged people, bad lighting, and the occasional miracle.” Gary Oldman’s Jackson Lamb—profane, rumpled, brilliant—is the gravitational force around which the misfits orbit. “You wouldn’t want him in your department,” another viewer noted, “but you can’t stop watching him do his job.” 

What elevates the series is the way its humor, dry as chalk dust, suddenly gives way to genuine emotional weight. The stakes arrive quietly. One longtime reader of Herron’s novels put it simply: “It’s a show about failure—not erasing it, but living with it.” In that uneasy tension between bleak comedy and bruised humanity lies the show’s particular charge. 

London's Aldersgate deserves an Emmy for Best Location

The geography matters. Slough House’s exterior, filmed in Aldersgate near the Barbican’s Brutalist arcades, offers a London rarely romanticized. Locals recognize the mood: the drizzle, the bus fumes, the corners where a career might be forgotten. One London viewer remarked, “It looks like the place where hope goes to die, and that’s why I root for them.” The setting is not merely backdrop; it is a character—drab, stubborn, and perfectly suited to the story. 

Mick Herron, the author behind the novels, is not a former spy. He worked for years in the publishing world after studying at Oxford. His eye for office politics, institutional pettiness, and the quiet despair of wasted talent informs every page. Not all spies make good writers or tale tellers.  This series is a creation of a non-spy.  It shows that and all for the better.

Slough House, he has said, owes as much to the workplaces he survived as to any intelligence agency lore. His prose—precise, dry, and unexpectedly compassionate—translates seamlessly to the screen. 

Apple TV+ has already committed to Season 6, with Season 7 in development. 

Based on the show’s reliable timetable, Season 6 is expected to arrive in the fall of 2026, likely adapting Herron’s novel Joe Country. Viewers can expect more of the show’s signature blend of wit, weariness, loyalty under strain, and the occasional, unlikely act of courage from people who long ago abandoned the idea of heroism. 

In an era awash in glossy universes and effortless fantasy, Slow Horses remains devoted to chipped paint, bad coffee, and the stubborn dignity of flawed people. It demonstrates that even in the dimmest corner of Aldersgate, perseverance can be its own kind of triumph. Or, as Jackson Lamb might phrase it—if he had the patience—every screwup gets a turn eventually. 

And in metaphor land Slow Horses is a show Americans have danced around for decades and failed to deliver.  The Brits admit there are class divisions as personified by actors Gary Oldham and Kristin Thomas.  Yanks pretend everyone is equal.  In a word, Slow Horses succeeds because of its honesty.

COFFEE BEANS & BEINGS / BARDOT, COFFEE AND A CAMEO

 

In American major league baseball there is a term "came up for a quick cup of coffee," which means a player made it to the "bigs" but just as quickly went back down to the minor leagues. In French film, things are more literal. Photo above, is Parisian proof of stopping by for a quick cup of coffee. 

1960s cine star Brigitte Bardot is not one of the principal actors in the film Masculin Féminin (1966). However, she does make a brief cameo appearance, above, in a typically Godardian, blink-and-you-miss-it fashion. 

The moment occurs when Paul (Jean-Pierre Léaud) and Robert (Michel Debord) are in a café: a woman is glimpsed, and the dialogue makes a passing, ironic reference to Bardot’s star persona. 

Godard, who had previously directed Bardot in Le Mépris (1963), uses her presence here less as a character and more as an iconic echo of 1960s celebrity culture — part of the film’s ongoing contrast between pop-culture superficiality and political seriousness. Art aside BB is there to sell tickets.  End of mystery.

So:

• Bardot does appear very briefly, essentially as herself. Her fleeting presence functions like a visual quotation — a reminder that even in Godard’s “documentary of youth,” the mythology of fame still hovers over modern life. 

• She is not a major part of the narrative, which focuses on Léaud’s Paul and Chantal Goya’s Madeleine, pictured below.

• For you trivia junkies the cafe scene was filmed inside Cafe Zoo, which is now called Monument Cafe Zoo de Paris (entrance via Avenue Daumesnil, 75012). 

FOGGY FRIDAY / WRONG GUY TO BE ASLEEP AT THE SWITCH

President Trump’s travails look more and more like President Biden’s 

 GUEST BLOG / By Frank Bruni, Columnist, The New York Times.--Just how run-down must a raging narcissist be to snooze through tributes to his own greatness? 

At a cabinet meeting last week, President Trump didn’t merely close his eyes and achieve a droopy stillness universally recognized as a vertical nap. He did so during a gathering convened at least in part so he could bathe in his acolytes’ flattery. 

They batted their eyes at him; his eyelids fluttered shut. He might want to think twice about letting the television cameras in next time around.

And the rest of us might want to brace ourselves for some presidential déjà vu. 

He’s starting to give President Joe Biden vibes. I’m in no way suggesting any equivalence or near equivalence in their characters. Biden meant well, regarded governing as serious business and radiated decency. Trump means to be either feared or worshiped, regards governing as show business and revels in cruelty and mockery, which are flexes of his power. 

But there are echoes of what bedeviled Biden in what’s bedeviling Trump. 

And I’m talking about more than Trump’s arguably diminished energy and the inarguably intensifying public attention to it. I’m also talking about the economy — and Trump’s spectacular failure to allay voters’ anxieties. 

The rap on Biden during the second half of his term was that he didn’t fully understand how financially stressed many Americans were and that he clung to a tone-deaf insistence that conditions were better than people’s perceptions of them. 

Trump, in the first year of his current term, has attained an aloofness that Biden could only dream of. At that cabinet meeting, Trump challenged the very idea that the cost of living was on voters’ minds and waged war on a perfectly good noun, dismissing “affordability” as a Democratic hoax and hex. “They just say the word,” Trump groused. “It doesn’t mean anything to anybody. They just say it — affordability.” 

Secret Service agent: "Is he asleep or did he find gum on his shoe?"

What made his gripe doubly bizarre is that he himself has talked about affordability time and again, in his indictments of the economy under Biden and his boasts about his own economic plans and progress. He talked about it when he and Zohran Mamdani, the mayor-elect of New York City, made nice in the Oval Office just two and a half weeks ago, beaming at each other as the journalists in attendance picked their jaws up off the floor.

 “Some of his ideas really are the same ideas that I have,” the president told them. “A big thing on cost. The new word is ‘affordability.’ Another word, it’s just ‘groceries.’ It’s sort of an old-fashioned word, but it’s very accurate. They are coming down.” 

The “coming down” part presumably refers to food prices, but with Trump’s fugitive grammar, you never know. That phrasing was uncharacteristically understated. Trump tends toward the kind of hyperbole he spewed at Laura Ingraham on Fox News last month, when he claimed that “we have the greatest economy we’ve ever had.” During that interview, he also said polls showing that Americans were worried about it are fake, a deflection so similar to one that Biden made a year and a half earlier that on CNN, the anchor Abby Phillip did a side-by-side comparison of the two presidents’ remarks. She introduced it with a question: “When it comes to the economy, is Donald Trump taking messaging advice from Joe Biden?” 

He’s certainly not learning lessons from Biden’s troubles. In a recent column in The Economist with the clever print headline “Say It Ain’t Joe,” James Bennet recalled the audacious flurry of executive orders Biden signed in his first 100 days, the sweep of his legislative ambition, how fervently he believed that voters had demanded nothing less and how much all of that came back to haunt him later on. 

Bring to mind any other president you know? 

Whether Trump gets his comeuppance remains to be seen, but his approval ratings have declined in recent months, and so, by the looks of things, has his vigor. Of course, his indefatigably adoring press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, disputes that; she said that Trump was “listening attentively” rather than dozing furtively as cabinet members extolled his and his administration’s wonders. She directed those who doubt his vim to the “epic moment” during the meeting when he attacked Representative Ilhan Omar, Democrat of Minnesota, and other Somali immigrants to America. You know, the one in which he called them “garbage.” I guess xenophobia is now a proxy for stamina. 

Biden was 82 at the end of his presidency. Trump is 79 now, and he undeniably moves more fluidly, speaks more loudly and mixes it up with journalists more frequently than his predecessor did. But there are suggestions aplenty that he’s slowing down, as Katie Rogers and Dylan Freedman detailed in a recent article in The Times. 

And Americans are once again on a kind of presidential fitness watch, reading the tea leaves of bruises, blotches, gaffes. Are Trump’s baffling non sequiturs, herky-jerky syntax and fantastical misrepresentations of fact just a wholly unleashed, fully emboldened version of who he has always been, or is his focus blurring? What was up with his swollen ankles and the discoloration, partly concealed by makeup, on the back of one of his hands? 

And how to solve the mystery of the M.R.I. that he had at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in October? Trump’s comments about it are the stuff of a “Saturday Night Live” skit. 

He has said that he gave the news media the full results of the test, a claim contradicted by the fact that we don’t even know what part of his body physicians were looking at, and when reporters asked him that, he professed ignorance. “I have no idea what they analyzed,” he told a group of them on Air Force One recently. “But whatever they analyzed, they analyzed it well, and they said that I had as good a result as they’ve ever seen.” 

This from a man who still routinely rants about the evasions and deceptions of “Sleepy Joe” Biden? 

Wake up, Mr. [current] President. You’re not fooling anyone. 

THE FOODIST / LA’s Pure Art Deco Dining & Music Extravaganza

Wrapping up PillartoPost.org's year-long salute to the centennial of Art Deco Design

Los Angeles has no shortage of restaurants that call themselves glamorous, but only one feels genuinely carried forward from another era. Cicada, inside the 1928 Oviatt Building, isn’t themed and isn’t nostalgic—it’s the real architectural artifact of a city that once believed elegance was a civic duty. 

The gold-leaf ceiling rises high above the room; a mezzanine runs like an upper-deck observation rail; etched glass and polished metalwork catch the light the way designers intended nearly a century ago. Simply walking in adjusts your posture. 

Cicada becomes its fullest self on nights when music takes the room. A full orchestra or swing band sets up on the built-in stage, warming up as dinner service eases into motion. It’s not background sound. The band is part of the architecture, and when it starts, the restaurant turns into a genuine supper club. Some guests dance. Others stay at their tables and simply let the atmosphere soak in. Either way, the night becomes something more than a meal.  

Deco, Dining, Dancing

Adding live music to the experience is easy, though first-timers often miss how to do it well. Cicada’s music calendar is posted online, and band nights often sell out well ahead of time, especially the big swing evenings. Reservations are essential for those nights; walk-ins rarely find a seat once the first horn sounds. Guests who prefer a quieter musical backdrop can choose evenings with smaller ensembles—jazz trios, vintage vocalists, or orchestral pop sets—which offer the full Deco mood without the packed dance floor. 

The mezzanine works especially well for these nights, giving diners a clear view of the stage and the full sweep of the room.  

Arriving early is part of the fun. Showing up a half hour before your reservation lets you catch the soundcheck, a private-feeling interlude when the musicians warm up and the room seems to wake from a long sleep. Swing-dance nights sometimes include short lessons beforehand, and regulars often arrive in period attire, though nothing about Cicada requires it. The room makes space for everyone—dancers, diners, and people who simply enjoy watching a timeless ritual unfold.  

Oviatt Building Circa 1928

The menu follows the same philosophy: classic Continental and Italian dishes prepared with quiet confidence. Pastas, steaks, lobster, a scattering of traditional starters—nothing forced, nothing ironic, everything in harmony with the room. The food doesn’t compete with the show; it supports it. In a space this visually and musically charged, that balance is essential.  

Cicada stands alone as the last of Los Angeles’s true Art Deco dining rooms, still operating in the spirit in which it was built. Plenty of restaurants try to evoke Hollywood’s golden age; this one simply continues it. Filmmakers use the room because it already looks cinematic. Diners return because it offers a rare sensation in any city: a night out that feels like an occasion.  

For anyone wanting to meet Los Angeles at its most theatrical and most sincere, Cicada remains the essential address—especially when the band is playing and the gold ceiling begins to glow.  

Cicada is located at 617 S. Olive Street in downtown Los Angeles. Reservations may be made by calling 213-488-9488. For event inquiries or larger parties, the restaurant may be reached at events@cicadarestaurant.com . Additional details, menus, and the live-music calendar are available at cicadarestaurant.com. 

1 PIX = 1K WORDS / ANOTHER LATE FALL DAY IN PARADISE

Aerial view facing North along the iconic Mission Beach isthmus
in San Diego.    

THINK PIECE / AI Is Here. Now What?

By Thomas Shess, Editorial Intern, PillartoPost.org Daily Online Magazine.  

Artificial intelligence has arrived in full daylight, no longer the stuff of futurists, laboratory theorists, or Silicon Valley mystics. It is already behind the wheel, in the cockpit, in the operating room, and in our pockets. The question is no longer if AI will reshape our daily lives, but how far we let it run before we set the ground rules.   

Take Waymo. A driverless taxi glides down Valencia Street today with more confidence than a 19-year-old on a learner’s permit. Cameras, radar, LiDAR, and cloud-linked navigation now combine to make decisions in milliseconds—many of them safer than human reflexes. 

But the moral question hovers: when an autonomous car runs over a cat or worse a MAGA voter, who’s responsible? The engineer? The programmer? The algorithm? Or the absent driver? Cities like San Francisco are discovering that “the future” also brings regulatory headaches that voters never anticipated.   

Then there are the jets. Commercial aircraft already fly themselves for most of every journey. Auto-throttle, fly-by-wire, precision GPS, collision-avoidance systems: pilots today supervise more than they “fly.” The next step—pilotless regional hops—is not fantasy. The technology exists. The hurdle is trust. Passengers understand turbulence. They do not yet understand software making the landing all by itself in a crosswind.   

And surgeries. AI doesn’t just guide robots; it helps diagnose conditions weeks earlier than traditional imaging. Algorithms can now flag a tumor with more accuracy than a radiologist having a good day. Robots can perform microsurgery impossible for the human wrist. The danger is not that AI replaces surgeons—it’s that hospitals lean so heavily on automation they grow complacent.   

So what happens next?   

AI’s arrival isn’t a single invention. It’s a cascade moment, the way electricity once was. To stop it would be like trying to ban the light bulb. But the role of culture, law, and community is to define how we coexist with a technology that does not get tired, does not get bored, and does not have a conscience.   

We need to move the conversation away from doom and utopia and toward stewardship. We control the knobs. We decide the guardrails. We define whether AI becomes a civic asset or a runaway experiment.   

AI is here. It is not asking permission. The question is: are we ready to lead it, or will we let it lead us?

 us?

MEDIA MONDAY / GOONIES SPREADING THE BLAME AROUND

 

RETRO FILES / The evolution of the deadly American flying gunships

Every December 7 carries an echo. 

Birth of the American Aerial Gunship

That date in infamy returns each year not only as a remembrance of Pearl Harbor, but as a reminder of how American airpower was forced to grow up overnight. 

In the stunned aftermath of 1941, our aircraft designers and combat crews learned quickly that survival in the Pacific demanded something new: machines that could hit back hard, fly low, and punish the enemy at close range. 

Out of that crucible emerged the first true American flying gunships that grew from wartime improvisation into some of the most feared aircraft ever built. The lineage stretches back to World War II, when young crews in B-25 Mitchells found their medium bombers could be refitted as low-flying strafers—fast, rugged, and vicious at tree-top level. Hard points sprouted along the fuselage and wings, and their noses bristled with .50-caliber guns as the Pacific campaigns demanded aircraft capable of ripping through supply barges, airstrips, and lightly armored ships. In the crucible of war, the idea of a side-firing attack aircraft was born.

By the late stages of the war, the concept evolved further in aircraft like the A-20 Havoc and the A-26 Invader, both reconfigured for brutal, close-quarters work. These were the ancestors of the modern gunship philosophy: hit hard, loiter when possible, and keep pressure on the battlefield long after faster fighters had to peel away. Their descendants would follow American troops into every major conflict of the next century, adapting to jungle, desert, and mountain with equal ferocity.

A-130 "Good Morning, Vietnamer" in action

The AC-130 gunship emerged from Vietnam’s harsh arithmetic, where slow-flying transports needed teeth to protect ground forces pinned down in the jungle. What began as a modified C-130 Hercules—fitted first with side-firing miniguns and rapid-fire cannons—quickly evolved into one of the most formidable close-air-support platforms in modern warfare. Engineers discovered that the big Hercules could orbit a target like a patient hawk, delivering withering, pinpoint fire from an array of Gatling guns, Bofors cannons, and eventually a 105-mm howitzer, the largest gun ever mounted on a U.S. combat aircraft. Over successive variants, from the AC-130A “Spectre” to the later “Spooky,” “Stinger,” and today’s AC-130J “Ghostrider,” the aircraft transformed from a nighttime guardian of infantry patrols into a precision-strike machine integrating infrared sensors, radar, laser-guided munitions, and modern battlefield networking. What remains unchanged is its mission: to stay overhead when troops need it most, delivering overwhelming firepower with uncanny accuracy—an airborne evolution directly traceable to the rough-and-ready gunships of World War II.

"Brrrrrrt"

That lineage came full circle in the long years of Iraq and Afghanistan, where the modern A-10 Warthog—essentially a flying Gatling gun with wings—shouldered the low-altitude strafing role once pioneered by the B-25s and Invaders. Designed around the fearsome GAU-8 Avenger cannon, the A-10 proved the timeless truth that close-air support demands durability, simplicity, and a willingness to get down in the dust with the troops. While faster jets streaked overhead, it was the Warthog and the AC-130 that lingered, hunted, and covered the convoys inching through hostile valleys.

  From B-25 gunships in the Pacific to the lumbering AC-130s circling over Middle Eastern battlefields, the idea has remained constant: find an aircraft strong enough to take punishment, stable enough to orbit, and lethal enough to change the fate of those fighting on the ground. On a date when Americans remember the cost of unprepared skies, it is fitting to trace this long arc of innovation—how necessity, ingenuity, and sheer battlefield need transformed a series of airframes into the flying gunships that define American close-air support to this day.

COFFEE BEANS & BEINGS / ITALY'S 100-YEAR-OLD BARISTA THRIVES RUNNING HER OWN PLACE

Anna Possi poses for a photo behind the counter of her bar. Photos by Claudia Greco/Thomsen-Reuters.

GUEST BLOG / By Lisa Jucca, Reporter Thomsen-Reuters--In the village of Nebbiuno, perched on the Piedmont hills overlooking Lake Maggiore, Anna Possi is pulling espressos at Bar Centrale — just as she has done every day since 1958. 

 Despite having recently celebrated her 101st birthday, Italy's longest-serving barista shows no sign of slowing down. From behind the counter of the cafe she opened with her husband, more than six decades ago, Possi greets locals and tourists alike with the same precision and stamina that has defined her life’s work. 

Anna Possi talks to some customers outside her bar. REUTERS/Claudia Greco.

Possi, who was awarded Italy’s honorary title of Commander of the Republic last year for her lifelong service, has lived through war, economic booms, and cultural shifts. 

Speaking with Reuters over an espresso, she reflects on Italy’s changing coffee culture, as well as her secret recipe for longevity. 

Q. What first drew you to this work? 

A. My parents had a restaurant, bar and tobacco shop, and sold newspapers. I started working at 18, right after school. Since my uncles had restaurants in Genoa, I moved there in 1946, just after (World War Two) finished. I learned everything from the ground up — serving, cleaning, managing. 

It was a change from the war years: In Nebbiuno, we were caught between two fires — partisans (Italian resistance members) in the mountains and Germans on the lake shores. We were in constant danger. Later, I married my husband, who also ran a bar and restaurant. I did a bit of everything to save on costs. When that became too much, we came back to our home region and opened this tiny bar in Nebbiuno, just the two of us. 

No staff, no frills. It was initially just a coffee house because we did not have the license to sell alcohol. But when my husband’s aunt, who had raised him like a son, died in 1960, we expanded it a bit because she lived next door. When my husband passed away, in 1974, I continued on my own. It's been 51 years of working alone, as a widow, in this bar. But I like it because I like to be surrounded by people. 

Q. How has coffee culture changed since you first opened? 

A. In the early days, the bar was buzzing. We had five paper mills nearby: Customers used to come in the morning, have their coffee, and the workers would have a little grappa (an Italian spirit). We worked a lot back when the paper mills were running. There was a rhythm; it was a different kind of work. 

In the '60s, we added the dance floor. And people started to come from far (away), from the towns of Arona and Omegna. They came from all over because my bar was different, (it) was new. 

The village also had a restaurant and a trattoria, but we were the only place with a lakeview and an open-air dance floor. During that time, I had a great clientele, it was all lawyers, doctors, engineers — people who came and spent money. This bar is a bit like family, you know? 

Anna looks out from inside her bar.

Q. What role do cafes like yours play in Italian culture? 

A. This bar is a bit like family, you know? It does not feel like a bar; it's a meeting place. People come not just to consume, but to connect. They ask me to pass messages to the town hall, to the doctor. I help with paperwork, errands. I’m always available for everyone. 

If someone wants to use the bar to show their artwork, for instance, I say yes. And I do it for free. They’re customers, they give me business. Why would I ask for money? If customers leave something, it’s nice, because whatever they leave me always goes to charitable causes. 

 I’ve seen generations grow up. Some grandparents come in with their grandkids and say, “Anna, remember the jukebox?” Today, however, young people no longer come to the bar. They came when we had the dance floor and the music. Today, they like to spend time with the smartphone; they even take it to bed when they go to sleep. 

 Q: Has working as a barista helped you maintain good health? 

 A. Work is what distracts you and at the same time gives you something — it makes you feel independent. You don’t have to depend on others. Here in Piedmont, the women all worked, even back in the days when I was young — some in the fields, some doing housework, and others took on jobs from outside companies and worked from home. This wasn’t the kind of town where women stayed idle. I tell my granddaughters: work, save, don’t depend on anyone. The world is getting harder. 

Left: A sign reads 'Grandma Anna 100', inside Anna Possi's bar. 

Q: Is there a particular customer or story that’s stayed with you? 

 A. When the AC Milan football team trained nearby, that created a bit of a buzz because all the girls wanted autographs and such from the footballers. And since these players used to come to my bar, there was a lot of movement. They would stay at the hotel, train and then, around six in the afternoon, come here for an aperitif. And that attracted the girls. They went wild for Gianni Rivera, Egidio Calloni, Fulvio Collovati. It was a lively time. And these are memories that stuck with me. 

About the Author Lisa Jucca is the Global Industry Editor for Consumer Goods, Luxury & Retail at Reuters. She leads coverage of the world’s top companies shaping how we shop and live. Previously, Lisa was Breakingviews’ European Business Editor, analyzing corporate and financial trends across the EU. Her career spans senior roles in Asia and Europe, including Asia Finance Editor and Italy’s Chief Financial Correspondent. She has reported on the fall of Swiss bank secrecy, the euro zone crisis, China's debt-fueled economy and numerous M&A battles. Her investigative work on Vatican-China relations has been commended by SOPA. She has published a book about the Hong Kong protests.  She loves espresso.

FRIDAY FIBBING / USA IS FINALLY SEEING TRUMP FOR THE BULLSH*T ARTIST HE IS.

Illustration by Steve Sack

He came to power through a relentless assault of lies. But the debt owed to the truth is coming due. 

ESSAY BY MICHAEL TOMASKY, EDITOR OF THE NEW REPUBLIC MAGAZINE. 

From time to time, one of my school chums who is MAGA posts something like the following on Facebook: “Hey, libtards, you keep saying Donald Trump is dumb, but if he’s so dumb, how come he got elected president twice, overcoming your relentlessly corrupt attempts to steal the 2016 and 2024 elections, and escaped your nefarious deep-state schemes to put him behind bars?” 

That is supposed to be some kind of killer put-down that is supposed to leave people like me stammering. No stammering because the answer to how Trump has succeeded is really simple: He lies nonstop, and lying works. 

Sure, there are other factors in play—he tapped into and intensified a certain strain of profound proletarian resentment of liberal elites, and … well, that’s about it. But mostly, it’s the lies. Before I dig into this, let me define the word lie as I mean it here, since lies can take many different forms. The standard Trump lie is a simple blanket assertion of non-fact as fact. He does this many times a day. A notable if all-too-common example emerged last Saturday morning, when he “Truthed” (oh the layers of irony!) that he had “JUST GOTTEN THE HIGHEST POLL NUMBERS OF MY ‘POLITICAL CAREER.’” 

He sometimes veers into the deeper, more Goebbels-y lie of saying the exact opposite of the truth (Joe Biden stole the 2020 election), but most of his lies are of the more straightforward variety—up is down, black is white: the classics. 

We tell ourselves that we live in a free society with a Fourth Estate that calls out lies and holds liars accountable. And furthermore, we teach our children not to lie and warn them of consequences should they do so. In such a society, lying should not work. 

So why does it? 

It works on the public stage (private life is a different matter) because in that sphere, someone who lies all the time creates reality, or I should say “reality.” 

Think about it. 

Say four guys are sitting in a bar having a sports argument—talking about the upcoming college football playoffs, say. They begin by agreeing that Ohio State is the favorite because it is currently ranked number one in the polls, which it in fact is. But one of them says: No, Texas A&M is number one. The other three look at him like he’s insane. They reach for their phones, they tap, tap, tap, and they show him the rankings. But he keeps insisting. Those polls are fake. It’s Texas A&M. Everybody says so. The conversation stalls. The liar has “won” the argument. Not in the sense that he is factually correct; he is not. But he has won in two senses. 

First, he has shut down what might have been a rational, interesting, spirited debate that proceeded from shared factual premises. Second, he has forced the other three to waste time and mental energy debating a proposition that is not remotely up for debate, and in the process has succeeded in making himself the center of attention and controversy whom everyone else talks about. 

Well, you say, the other three could just ignore him, and in my example, it’s possible that they could. But now imagine that these four and their views are highly regarded by the other 100 patrons in the bar—that they direct the conversation, and the others listen to them and follow their lead. And imagine further that over the years, our Texas A&M acolyte has won the intense loyalty of 40 or 45 of the other patrons, such that they too adopt the position that the Aggies are in fact number one. 

Now, the entire bar is enmeshed in silly, pointless controversy. And finally, imagine one more thing. Imagine that our A&M partisan and his followers not only say of the Buckeye adherents that they are wrong. No! They accuse them of moral turpitude. They charge that believing that Ohio State is number one is a sign of confusion, weakness, depravity; un-Americanism, even. 

They do so with a singular conviction and vigor, enough that the 10 or 15 patrons in the bar who don’t follow college football at all and don’t know who’s really number one emerge genuinely confused and perhaps even inclined to believe them. 

That’s how lying in the public sphere succeeds. And, to reiterate, Trump tells many such lies a day. He talks to the press two or three times a day most days, which probably adds up to what, 45 minutes, an hour? Spitballing it at one lie every two minutes, which may well be low, that’s around 25 factual lies a day. (This is commonly referred to as a “Gish gallop”—a torrent of lies that comes so relatively hot and heavy that the truth can’t find a purchase.) 

Who can keep up? 

No one can. 

I complain a lot about the mainstream media, and with good reason—they spent years repeating Trump’s incessant lies in the interest of “fairness” (and they still do it too much). But this is one aspect of their task that even I concede is well-nigh impossible. 

A news outlet would need a staff of at least, oh, 15 people to really keep assiduous track of all that lying. No one can do that these days. Besides which, it’s human nature when confronted with a flood of lies to just give up at some point. Run up the white flag. If someone is telling you the sky is green and the grass is blue, at first you’ll argue with him. Then you’ll walk him outside to show him. But when he continues to insist on it, you’ll give up. 

This and nothing else is the secret of Trump’s success. He wins by wearing honest people down. After 10,000 or 20,000 or 50,000 such lies, Trump has distorted “reality” wildly in his favor. And, crucially, he has an entire political party and multimillion-dollar propaganda outlets repeating and reinforcing the lies. 

He, and they, have convinced about 40 percent of the country that Ohio State isn’t number one, metaphorically, and that you have to be a Communist to think so. And they’ve cast enough doubt in the minds of about 10 percent of the country so that they don’t know what to think. 

But here’s the good news: I sense that this is finally changing. I wrote above that Trump has an entire political party behind him. Well, not quite—now that’s minus one. I’m not going to ladle praise on Marjorie Taylor Greene here, but I will give her this much: Whatever her motivations, she stood up to the guy. Ditto Tom Massie. Their actions are communicating to the MAGA base in a way no Democrat could that Trump is lying about Jeffrey Epstein in some way, shape, or form. 

The seed is thus planted in the collective MAGA mind that Trump might sometimes be full of beans. There are other encouraging signs that the lies may no longer be working. 

The more Trump keeps bragging about the greatest economy in the history of the mind of God, the more people will see him as a conman. 

How anybody was dumb enough to believe last year that he could lower prices is another question, but for present purposes, he can’t convince most people that they’re not seeing what they’re seeing when they go to the supermarket. America may also begin to see this week the all-too-real consequences of his foreign policy lying. 

Trump has given Volodymyr Zelenskiy until Thursday to agree to the 28-point “peace” plan that he and his people drew up with the Kremlin that gives Ukraine almost nothing. 

If Zelenskiy hasn’t agreed by Thanksgiving, Trump says, he’s on his own. 

It’s a morally repugnant position for a president of the United States to take, and while I’m not naïve enough to expect that most Americans care passionately about Ukraine, they will grasp the fact that Trump has spent two years lying repeatedly about how easy negotiating peace in that conflict would be. 

Reality is finally starting to catch up with Trump. And so, to answer the MAGA crowd’s Facebook question more fully: He only looks smart because his lies have overwhelmed a political culture that didn’t know how to respond to them. 

If I were a Trump fan, I’d start worrying about what happens when that stops. 

 

ABOUT THE WRITER. Michael Tomasky is the editor of The New Republic and the author of five books, including his latest and critically acclaimed The Middle Out: The Rise of Progressive Economics and a Return to Shared Prosperity. With extensive experience as an editor, columnist, progressive commentator, and special correspondent for renowned publications such as The Guardian, The Washington Post, The New York Times, the Daily Beast, and many others, Tomasky has been a trusted voice in political journalism for more than three decades.

RARE EARTH PRIMER / WHAT EXACTLY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

Europium

TOP RARE EARTH USERS

Ten industries rely critically on rare earth elements, each using these metals for high-performance functions that are difficult to replace. 

Electric vehicles--Electric motors require rare-earth permanent magnets (notably neodymium and dysprosium) to deliver torque and efficiency in compact form; hybrids and full electrics depend on them at scale. 

Wind energy--Direct-drive wind turbines rely on neodymium-based magnets for generator systems, making rare earths central to global renewable-power ambitions. 

Consumer electronics--Smartphones, laptops, tablets, and televisions use rare earths in speakers, vibration motors, camera lenses, batteries, and display phosphors for color accuracy and brightness. 

Defense and aerospace--Guidance systems, jet engines, missile actuators, night-vision devices, and radar platforms depend on rare-earth magnets and specialty alloys, making supply a national-security priority. 

Medical technology--MRI machines, laser surgical systems, contrast imaging compounds, hearing aids, and pacemaker components incorporate rare-earth materials for precision and efficiency. 

Telecommunications-Fiber-optic networks rely on erbium-doped amplifiers to boost signal strength over global data routes; rare earths are also used in satellite components. 

Automotive manufacturing--Beyond electric motors, catalytic converters use cerium and lanthanum, and power-steering systems, sensors, and fuel-efficiency technologies contain rare-earth materials. 

Industrial automation and robotics--High-precision servo motors, sensors, and industrial lasers rely on rare-earth magnets and optical materials to deliver speed, accuracy, and durability. 

Oil and gas refining--Rare-earth catalysts are essential to breaking down crude oil molecules during refining, improving fuel yield and efficiency. 

Semiconductors and advanced computing--Rare earths support chip polishing, wafer manufacturing, cooling systems, and hard-disk drive magnets, underpinning high-performance data-center and AI infrastructure. 

Mountain Pass Rare Earth Open Pit Mine near San Bernardino, CA

THE 17 METALLIC ELEMENTS COMPRISING RARE EARTH 

Rare earth elements are not rare in the sense of scarcity but in the difficulty of extracting and refining them. These 17 metallic elements, including neodymium, dysprosium, and lanthanum, are essential to modern technology. They enable high-strength magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines, phosphors in smartphone screens, catalysts for refining oil, and guidance systems in defense hardware. 

In an economy increasingly powered by electrification and digital devices, rare earths are the quiet backbone of high-performance engineering. The challenge is geography and geopolitics more than geology. 

Rare earth deposits exist globally, but China dominates the supply chain from mining to processing. More than 80 percent of global refining capacity sits under Beijing’s regulatory umbrella, creating strategic leverage over industries pursuing clean energy, advanced computing, and national security. 

Western economies are racing to diversify sourcing and processing, not only via new mines in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Africa, but through investment in recycling technologies and alternative materials. 

Market dynamics are complex. 

Rare earth prices swing with policy shifts in Beijing, military procurement cycles, and global electric-vehicle demand. Investors track permitting timelines for new mines, processing plant construction, and government incentives. 

Public companies in the sector face operational risks tied to environmental regulation, community opposition, and the high capital cost of separation facilities. 

For manufacturers, supply assurance now carries equal weight with price as companies lock in long-term contracts and explore vertical integration. 

Bottom line: rare earths are a strategic commodity at the intersection of clean-tech growth and geopolitical tension. The companies that can reliably source, refine, or recycle these elements will shape industrial competitiveness over the next decade. 

THE 17 RARE EARTH ELEMENTS 

Neodymium

Neodymium--A powerful magnetic element essential for electric-vehicle motors, wind-turbine generators, and advanced electronics requiring compact, strong magnets. 

Scandium--A lightweight metal used in high-strength aluminum alloys, fuel cells, and aerospace components for improved durability and performance. 

Yttrium--A versatile element used in LEDs, superconductors, and medical imaging, known for enhancing phosphors and strengthening alloys. 

Lanthanum--A soft metal used in camera lenses, hybrid-vehicle batteries, and petroleum refining catalysts for clarity, efficiency, and fuel conversion. 

Cerium--The most abundant rare earth, widely used in catalysts, glass polishing, and auto exhaust systems due to its strong oxidizing ability. 

Praseodymium--A magnetic and optical-grade metal used in high-strength magnets, aircraft engines, and specialty glass with strong coloration properties. 

Promethium--A radioactive rare earth used in luminous paint, space power systems, and scientific instruments, produced mainly from nuclear facilities. 

Samarium--Used in high-temperature permanent magnets, nuclear reactor control rods, and infrared-absorbing glass thanks to its thermal stability. 

Europium--A critical phosphor for red and blue emission in displays and lighting, foundational to color television and LED technologies. 

Gadolinium--A key MRI contrast agent and neutron absorber in nuclear reactors, valued for its magnetic and nuclear properties. 

Terbium

Terbium--Used in green phosphors for screens and high-efficiency lighting, as well as in alloying high-performance permanent magnets. 

Dysprosium--A magnet-strengthening element crucial for electric-vehicle motors and turbine generators that must operate under high heat. 

Holmium--A rare earth with the strongest magnetic properties, used in nuclear control rods, lasers, and specialty medical devices. 

Erbium--Essential to fiber-optic communication, used in amplifiers that boost long-distance internet and telecom signals. 

Thulium--A scarce element used in portable X-ray devices, lasers, and research applications due to its unique radiation properties. 

Ytterbium--Used in laser systems, stress-testing alloys, and atomic clocks, enabling precision measurement and advanced sensing. 

Lutetium--The densest and hardest rare earth, used in PET scan detectors, catalyst research, and high-precision electronics. 

Bayan-Obo, the largest open pit Rare Earth mine on the planet.  Located
Inner Mongolia as seen in this NASA image.

AMERICANA / THE NEXT BIG BIGGER THAN AI THING

THE TEN SUPPLIERS DRIVING THE ROBOTICS REVOLUTION 

PillartoPost.org White Paper Report 

When historians look back on the early decades of the 21st century, they may call it the moment when machines finally stopped being props of speculation and became co-workers, caretakers, and companions. 

Yet behind every polished humanoid demo or warehouse robot skating across a concrete floor lies an unglamorous but essential reality: the revolution will be built by suppliers. Not the headline-grabbers, but the companies turning out the sensors, servos, chips, batteries and software that teach machines how to behave in the world. 

And the urgency has been heightened by the news that Apple Inc. is making a substantial investment (read: upwardds of $32 billion) into robotics and advanced R&D—a move highlighted by The Motley Fool. According to that outlet, Apple is positioning itself to chart new territory in automation and smart-machines beyond its more familiar hardware and services lines. 

Here are the ten supplier sectors shaping robotics more than any billionaire’s keynote speech: 

1. Advanced Sensor Makers. Robots see because someone builds the eyes. High-resolution machine-vision cameras, LiDAR rings, depth sensors, thermal arrays — these components allow machines to map a room, detect a human hand, or navigate a warehouse aisle without bowling over a forklift. 

2. Precision Motor and Motion-Control Manufacturers. Every smooth robotic gesture depends on the artisans behind harmonic drives, servomotors, actuators, and micro-gearing. These suppliers give robots their fine motor skills, whether pouring a cup of coffee or tightening a bolt. 

3. AI Chip and Edge-Computing Designers. The brain-power comes from neural processors designed to run complex models right on the robot. Without these chips, robots would still be waiting for cloud servers to tell them what to do. Apple’s R&D push signals how critical this layer has become. 

4. Battery and Energy-System Innovators. Solid-state batteries, high-density lithium packs, and safer cooling systems are what let robots roam hospitals, patrol construction sites, or deliver groceries without trailing an extension cord. 

5. Industrial Automation Component Builders. These are the suppliers of robotic arms, grippers, pneumatic systems, conveyor adapters, and modular joints — the toolbox of the modern factory floor. 

6. Connectivity and Networking Providers. For a fleet of robots to work together, they need reliable, low-latency 5G/6G radios, mesh networks, and secure IoT channels. Communication is half the job—and Apple’s interest suggests the ecosystem will span both home and industrial contexts. 

7. Advanced Materials and Fabrication Firms. Lightweight alloys, carbon-fiber composites, 3-D printed chassis parts, and soft-robotics materials shape the durability and agility of next-generation machines. 

8. Robotics Software and Middleware Developers. The unsung heroes behind ROS2 stacks, navigation engines, safety protocols, and fleet-management platforms. They write the invisible infrastructure that holds the entire ecosystem together. 

9. Safety and Compliance System Suppliers. Emergency-stop modules, proximity sensors, certified redundancy boards — the hardware that reassures regulators (and humans) that the robot next to them won’t behave like a runaway lawn mower. 

10. Manufacturing and Test-Equipment Providers. Finally, the companies that build the factories that build the robots: high-precision PCB assemblers, calibration rigs, torque-testing labs, and automated QA systems. 

The robotics revolution will not arrive with a single breakthrough. It will arrive the way all great transformations do—through the steady advancement of suppliers who perfect the parts long before the public sees the machine. 

Apple’s billion-dollar commitment to robotics R&D (via The Motley Fool’s coverage) signals that we are entering the era where the supply chain matters more than ever. The robots get the applause, but the quiet army behind them is writing the future in screws, circuits, lenses, and code.

 People watch a robot walk at the Dubai Air Show held recently. 

SIDEBAR: Why Apple’s Robotics Move Matters

Reported by The Motley Fool in its article “Apple’s and Meta’s Robotics Ambitions” (Feb. 24 2025). The Motley Fool article highlights Apple’s emerging push into robotics and advanced R&D, suggesting the company is moving beyond its core iPhone/services hardware role into autonomous machines. 

• It notes robotics represents a strategic frontier for Apple and peer tech giants — a domain where sensor fusion, AI chip-design, edge computing and real-world deployment all converge. 

• For suppliers across vision, motors, chips, batteries, connectivity and manufacturing-equipment, Apple’s commitment signals a large-scale demand shift: think entire ecosystems rather than isolated widgets. 

• From an investor viewpoint, The Motley Fool argues that Apple’s robotics interest is one more reason to watch the supply chain behind robots (as much as robots themselves), because major OEMs like Apple will drive volume, affordability, and faster adoption curves. 

• The takeaway: The era of robotics isn’t “one off” product launches but industrial-scale supply-chain transformation. Apple’s move accelerates that rhythm.

 SIDEBAR: PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES POWERING THE ROBOTICS SUPPLY CHAIN 

Market snapshot for readers who follow the investment angle of Apple’s new robotics push. 

 Apple’s expanding interest in automation underscores the importance of the suppliers who build the eyes, muscles, brains, and bones of modern machines. 

Here are representative publicly traded companies (U.S. and international) in each of the ten critical supplier sectors. 

• 1. Sensor & Machine-Vision Manufacturers 

– Cognex (CGNX): A leader in machine vision for factories and logistics. 

– Teledyne Technologies (TDY): High-end scientific imaging, LiDAR, and sensors. 

• 2. Precision Motors, Servos & Motion Control 

– Harmonic Drive Systems (HDSLY): The gold standard in robotic gearing and precision drives. 

– ABB Ltd. (ABB): Broad industrial robotics provider with strong motion-control lines. 

• 3. AI Chips & Edge-Computing Hardware 

– NVIDIA (NVDA): Dominant supplier of AI silicon powering robotics perception and planning. 

– AMD (AMD): Rising player in AI and edge inference hardware. 

• 4. Advanced Battery & Energy Systems 

– Panasonic Holdings (PCRFY): Key innovator in high-density lithium-ion cells. 

– QuantumScape (QS): Developing solid-state battery technology critical for mobile robotics. 

• 5. Industrial Robotics & Automation Components 

– Fanuc (FANUY): Japanese giant of factory robotics and robotic arms. 

– Rockwell Automation (ROK): Industrial controls and factory automation infrastructure. 

• 6. Connectivity, IoT & Networking 

– Qualcomm (QCOM): 5G/6G modules and low-power connectivity vital for fleet robotics. 

– Cisco Systems (CSCO): Enterprise networking with growing IoT security offerings. 

• 7. Materials & Advanced Fabrication 

– Hexcel (HXL): Composite materials (carbon fiber, advanced polymers). 

– 3D Systems (DDD): Industrial 3-D printing for robotic chassis and components. •

8. Robotics Software, Mapping & Middleware 

– Trimble (TRMB): Mapping, navigation, and spatial-intelligence technologies. 

– Autodesk (ADSK): Design software ecosystem supporting robotics development pipelines. 

• 9. Safety, Redundancy & Industrial Control Systems 

– Siemens AG (SIEGY): Safety-certification hardware, industrial redundancy systems. 

– Emerson Electric (EMR): Process-control electronics and industrial safety platforms. 

• 10. Manufacturing, Tooling & Test Equipment 

– Teradyne (TER): Automated testing equipment; parent of Universal Robots. 

– ASML (ASML): Lithography machines essential to producing advanced robotics chips 

CRIME FILES / THE CANARY IN THE FOG / DEBUT FICTION

 

The Singing Canary Cliff Arnett

The Case of the Singing Smuggler 

GUEST BLOG / By Hank Calder, Noir Fiction Debut on PillartoPost.org   

San Francisco’s old waterfront had a way of turning men sideways.   

The fog rolled in every night like a soft accusation, and the ships along the Embarcadero creaked as if they remembered better times. In 1947, the war was finished, prosperity was beginning to hum, and the federal boys were trying to keep contraband from sliding south into Mexico and east into the desert.   

This story begins not with a gangster, but with a tenor. A nightclub singer named Clifford “Cliff” Arnett, whose one great talent was a golden voice — and whose one great weakness was his inability to pay his bills on time.   

The Canary, they called him. Handsome, soft-spoken, always quick with a grin. Women liked him. Bartenders liked him. Even his landlady liked him, and she didn’t like anybody.   

But Cliff had a habit that ruined all habits: he liked living better than his paycheck allowed. 

THE WRONG DOOR IN THE RIGHT ALLEY   

His break came in the shape of a locked door at the back of The Lido, a North Beach supper club where the tables were too small and the drinks too strong. One night after closing, Cliff saw the club manager — a slick man named Oswald Rinaldi — whispering with two strangers in dark coats. Papers changed hands. A quiet handshake. Too much caution for a simple business errand.   

Cliff leaned closer.   

What he overheard became the hinge of his lucky, unlucky life.   

The men were discussing “the courier route,” a weekly run from San Francisco to San Diego and across into Tijuana. The cargo wasn’t narcotics or guns — too messy, too dangerous.   

It was watches. 

Thousands of dollars’ worth of duty-free Swiss watches brought into the Port of San Francisco using falsified manifests, then moved quietly down the coast and sold in Mexico for profit.   

A clean racket. 

No blood. 

No bodies.   

Just numbers and nerve.   

Cliff backed away, but not fast enough.   

Rinaldi’s eyes caught him. “Arnett,” he said, “you looking for trouble?”   

Cliff shrugged. “Only if it pays better than singing.”   

A long stare.   

Then a smile.   

“Maybe it does, said Rinaldi.” 

THE FIRST RUN   

Two weeks later he was driving a borrowed cream-colored Hudson down Highway 101 with a trunk full of timepieces wrapped in butcher paper.   

The rules were simple: Drive at night. Stay off the main roads. Don’t talk if stopped. And once in San Diego, hand the car to a man named Domingo Céspedes, who ran a barbershop in Logan Heights with more secrets than a Hollywood leading lady.   

Cliff delivered the goods. He collected the cash. And he was back on stage by 9:30 the next evening singing Hoagy Carmichael tunes. 

By run four, his debts were paid.   

By run six, he was buying shoes that didn’t squeak.   

By run seven, he was shatterproof.  Nothing could touch him. 

THE GIRL FROM CUSTOMS   

Her name was Ruth Mallory.   

U.S. Customs Service.   

Smart, steady, serious.   

Cliff met her in a random encounter at a café in Little Italy. She liked him immediately — the voice, the humor, the easy charm. Cliff liked her too, but she was exactly the kind of woman a smuggler should avoid.   

One night they walked along India Street telling childhood stories. Ruth talked about always wanting to be a fed customs agent. Cliff talked about wanting to headline at the Palace Theatre. Neither mentioned the word smuggling, but both sensed something dark growing behind them.   

Ruth was sharp. Sharper than Cliff realized. She knew when a man dressed too well for his wages. 

THE WATCHDOG AT THE BORDER   

Across the line in Tijuana, Mexican authorities noticed a sudden spike of mid-range Swiss watches appearing in Zona Norte pawnshops. Not dangerous — just suspicious.   

Enter Customs Agent Martin F. O’Leary, a patient man with a face like a disappointed uncle. He had been following falsified shipping manifests and suddenly heard the same whisper over and over: “El Canario.”   

The Canary.   

A singer from San Francisco.   

He didn’t know if the man was real.   

But legends always spring from someone with bad timing. 

THE STING   

Cliff got bold. Call it careless. 

He spent big at roadside diners. Flirted and tipped lavishly with waitresses.   Sang in a San Luis Obispo restaurant on a night he should’ve been invisible. That night a U.S. Marshal eating at the same place recognized him from a Customs bulletin.   

Phone calls flew.   

The feds were waiting at the San Diego-Coronado ferry. One agent, posing as a dockworker, asked Cliff to move his car. Another lifted the trunk latch just enough to see towers of watch boxes.   

Cliff looked at the man’s eyes — that professional gleam — and knew the game was over. He raised his hands. “Fellas, if I sing, do I get a lighter sentence?”   

They laughed.   

That helped. 

THE TWIST IN THE TALE   

He cooperated fully. Ratted out Rinaldi, Céspedes, the pipeline. He got eighteen months at Terminal Island.   

Rinaldi got five years.   

Céspedes vanished into Mexico and never resurfaced.   

Ruth visited him twice.   

Once to scold him.   

Once to tell him he still had a life ahead if he didn’t blow it.   

In 1950, when Cliff walked free, Ruth was waiting with two tickets to a Los Angeles club where the bandleader owed her a favor. “Try singing legally,” she said. “It suits you.”   

Cliff took her hand. And that was the end of his highway smuggling career. 

THE END. 

MONDAY MONEY / HOW GOES STOCK MARKET AMID THE HUMAN HURRICANE

Weekly Market Wrap: Market jolts shouldn't be too scary 

GUEST BLOG / By James McCann, Senior Economist, Edward Jones Company. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS 

--Global markets were hit by another bout of volatility last week, with equities again finishing lower in a choppy week, continuing the worst run since the tariff driven sell-offs in April*. 

--The weakness in part reflects concerns over the technology sector, with a solid earnings report from NVIDIA unable to stifle the correction emerging across these companies as investors appear to take profits amid ongoing bubble chatter. 

--Meanwhile, ambiguity over the Fed's next steps is unhelpful, with the central bank continuing to struggle to get a clean read on the economy due to shutdown-driven data disruptions. 

--A correction in the buoyant market looked overdue, in our view, and we think investors should not overreact to the November setback. However, we believe recent moves underline the importance of a diversified portfolio in the current environment. 

--Lower entry points could provide an opportunity for investors, especially as the real returns on cash and bonds appear to dwindle. 

There is an old cliche in the movies - "It's quiet, a little too quiet." This probably describes how we had felt about equity markets over recent months during a remarkably steady 40% rally in the S&P 500 from April lows*. As is typical in films, this relative quiet has been rudely interrupted by a spike in volatility through November, which has so far triggered a 3% reversal in this benchmark*

We can point to a couple of plot twists driving this upheaval. First, the boom in AI stocks, which had helped power large-cap equity-market gains, is looking vulnerable, with investors booking profits as concerns grow over valuations and a potential bubble*. Second, there is increasing uncertainty that the Fed will swoop in with rate cuts to help sooth markets*. 

 To stretch our analogy perhaps uncomfortably far, we don't think this is the end of the show. Spikes in volatility are normal in equity markets, and we think even less surprising given the speed and scale of recent gains. A reset in expectations might be a healthy dynamic, in our view, and present an opportunity for investors to put cash to work and diversify portfolios. 

 AI stocks remain under pressure 

 The so called Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech companies have had a tough month. In market-capitalization-weighted terms, this group is down close to 6% in November so far, pushing large-cap markets, and in particular the tech-focused Nasdaq index, lower*. 

 We wrote in last week's wrap that the market appeared ripe for profit-taking following an extraordinary run, particularly as concerns start to build around froth in the tech sector. There looked to be further evidence of these dynamics this week around the much-anticipated NVIDIA third-quarter earnings report. 

At first glance the results were solid. Sales estimates for the third-quarter were stronger than expected, guidance for this quarter was revised higher, and there were bullish signals that the company could exceed the $500 billion uplift in revenue projected over 2026*. 

 However, after an initial rally in NVIDIA stock helped drive a 1% bounce in the S&P, we saw a swift and sharp reversal in sentiment that pushed markets lower*. Since 1957 we have only seen eight instances in which an opening rally of this magnitude has closed in the red*. 

 There might be a couple of factors driving this disappointment: 

-- First, while sales-growth projections remain strong, these are expected to slow in coming years, potentially closing the run of exponential-feeling growth in the sector*; and 

--Second, despite NVIDIA CEO Huang's attempt to push back on the AI-bubble narrative, the market is seemingly increasingly uneasy over the sustainability of current investment rates and their long-term payoff*. 

We flagged last week that certain tech companies are starting to build leverage to finance AI investment and shifting to more asset-heavy business models**, posing risks to margins and free cash flow. On this theme, we saw a further rise in the CDS spread - a measure of credit worthiness - for Oracle this week, a potential gauge of these worries*. 

 Despite these changes - and what looks to be a broader uncertainty around the long-term payoff from AI investments - we don't think investors should overreact to the wobble in short-term sentiment around the sector. Mega-cap stocks have consistently delivered strong earnings growth, the near-term investment outlook remains robust, and valuations, while elevated, do not look stretched to extremes as seen in the lead up to previous bubbles*. However, we think further sentiment- or valuation-driven setbacks are likely possible, despite these still strong-looking fundamentals. 

 Foggy conditions for the Fed 

Alongside booming AI stocks, one of the themes helping drive the market higher in 2025 has, in our view, been the resumption of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, following two consecutive rate cuts in September and October, there appears to be considerable uncertainty over the Fed's next move in early December*. 

 In part, this ambiguity reflects a hangover from the recent record-breaking government shutdown that disrupted the collection and release of economic data. The September payrolls report finally dropped last week, but this raised more questions than answers. 

 On the plus side, hiring was better-than-expected through September, with payrolls up 119,000, helped by improvements across a broader range of sectors***. However, there were familiar downward revisions to past hiring data, and the unemployment rate continues to drift concerningly higher***

This is the last official labor-market data the central bank will get before it decides interest rates December 10. The October and November reports will be delayed until December 16, with only part of the October edition published due to missed data collection***. 

Similarly, the Fed will not get an October CPI report, with the November reading also due after its December gathering*. For a central bank targeting inflation and employment, we think this shortfall is far from ideal. 

 The minutes from the October meeting appear to show clear concerns at the Fed around these disruptions - "various participants expressed concern about‚ the ability to accurately assess economic conditions because of limitations to the availability of federal government data"****. 

 Additionally, following two consecutive rate cuts*, and with inflation at 3%*, well above the Fed's 2% target, the more hawkish members of the committee seem to be becoming uneasy with further policy easing - "Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched"****. 

 Against this backdrop, market expectations for a cut in December have been on a wild ride*. In late October a cut was seen as a done deal, with pricing in money markets putting close to a 100% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25%) move*. These odds slid to a low of 30% early last week, before bouncing to 70% on Friday amid some dovish commentary from New York Fed President Williams*. 

 We think the decision will be finely balanced, with numerous dissents likely in the case of a cut or a hold. Further forward, we remain confident that the path for the fed funds rate is lower as the Fed reverses the post-pandemic tightening in monetary policy, which should help support U.S. growth and corporate earnings, particularly in the interest-rate-sensitive small-cap sector. However, against the backdrop of solid growth, and potentially persistent inflation, we think market expectations for rates to bottom around 3% next year* might be a little optimistic, and instead we see the fed funds rate falling to between 3% - 3.5% instead. 

 We think this gap between our expectations and market pricing could pose a risk to small-cap equities. However, if the Fed is cutting by less because of a solid, or even improving economic backdrop, these dynamics might compensate for the higher interest-rate costs in the sector, in our view. 

Diversification can soften shocks An outbreak of volatility following a period of calm can feel unsettling. Movie directors use these sudden shifts to keep viewers on the edge of their seats. 

However, we shouldn't be shocked into taking drastic changes to portfolios following the recent market reassessment. Instead, we think these dynamics can provide some useful reminders in the value of diversification. 

 The AI-led sell-off over recent weeks has sparked some rotation in the market toward unloved sectors, like health care and materials/energy*. We believe these companies could offer further potential for catch-up growth should we see further AI selling, especially given their lower valuation. 

More broadly, we think exposure to U.S. mid-cap stocks, international small and mid-cap developed market equities and emerging-market equities can provide additional diversification, especially given our view of an improving economic outlook overseas and more attractive multiples*. Importantly, we think these opportunities look attractive alongside a continued exposure to the AI theme via large-cap U.S. stocks. 

Finally, should we spring into action in the face of this shock? Speak to your financial advisor about potentially taking advantage of this market dip, if appropriate. With inflation running around 3%, the real return on cash-like investments is now running at less than 1%*. Based on your time horizon and risk tolerance, we think the latest pullback could offer some more return potential from strategic allocations in equities and bonds, especially if the three-year bull market continues into 2026 as we expect. 

 Looking Ahead

 Important economic data for the week ahead include housing and consumer confidence data. Government data that were impacted by the government shutdown are expected to gradually resume over the coming weeks, now that the shutdown has ended.