GUEST BLOG / By Anne and Paul Erlich--It
will be 50 years since we co-wrote “The Population Bomb
(Ehrlich 1968).” The book sold some 2 million copies, was translated into many
languages, and changed their lives. There is not much disagreement about the
significance of the volume – whether a person agrees with it or not, “The
Population Bomb” helped launch a worldwide debate that continues today. It
introduced millions of people to the fundamental issue of the Earth’s finite
capacity to sustain human civilization.
So how has it held
up?
In
a 2009 review of that seminal work, the Erlich’s wrote “We believe that despite
its flaws, the book still provides a useful lens for viewing the environmental,
energy, and food crisis of the present time.”
The
following is the 2009 conclusion by the Erlich’s:
In
2009, the Erlich’s admitted “The Population Bomb” certainly had its flaws,
which is to be expected. Science never produces certainty. Nonetheless the
couple said“we are all, scientists or not, always attempting to predict the
future (will the stock go up or down? Will he be a good husband? Will it rain
later?). And when we plan, we do the best we can.
“One
of our personal strategies has always been to have
our
work reviewed carefully by other scientists, and The
Population
Bomb was no exception. It was vetted by a series of scientists, including some
who became top leaders in the scientific enterprise.
“That
is one reason that long ago the fundamental message of The Bomb moved from a
somewhat heterodox view to a nearly consensus view of the scientific community.
Consider the following two 1993 statements. The first was the World Scientists’
Warning to Humanity, released by the Union of Concerned Scientists (1993) and
signed by more than 1,500 of
the world’s leading scientists, including more than half of all living Nobel
Laureates in science. The second was the joint statement by 58 of academies
participating in the Population Summit of the World’s Scientific Academies, including
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the British Royal Society, and the Third
World Academy (National Academy of Sciences USA 1993).
“The
World Scientists’ Warning said in part: “Human beings and the natural world are
on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage
on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our
current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society
and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it
will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.
“Fundamental
changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will
bring about.”
Part
of the Academies’ pronouncement read: “the magnitude of the threat… is linked
to human population size and resource use per person. Resource use, waste production
and environmental degradation are accelerated by
population growth. They are further exacerbated
by
consumption habits.… With current technologies,
present
levels of consumption by the developed world
are
likely to lead to serious negative consequences for
all
countries…. As human numbers further increase, the
potential
for irreversible changes of far-reaching magnitude
also
increases.”
“These
statements recognized that humanity has
reached
a dangerous turning point in its domination
of
the planet (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 2008), a view even
more
common in the scientific community today (e.g,,
Hall
and Day 2009). The same genius that allowed us
to
achieve that dominance now must be harnessed if we
are
to prevent our very success from sealing our doom.
“We
think, with all its warts, The Bomb did exactly what
we
had hoped – alerted people to the importance of
environmental
issues and brought human numbers into
the
debate on the human future. It was thus a successful tract,
and we’re proud of it.”
 |
| Anne and Paul Erlich, 1990 |
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