GUEST BLOG / By Chris
Cillizza, CNN columnist, “The Point.”
As
the coronavirus pandemic began to shut down American society in late March,
President Donald Trump suddenly got more popular.
His
job approval numbers, long stuck in the low 40s, jumped into the high 40s. His
disapproval numbers dropped. Suddenly it looked like the onset of the
coronavirus -- and his administration's handling of it -- might reset Trump's
long-stagnant standing with the American people.
In
each episode of his weekly YouTube show, Chris Cillizza will delve a little
deeper into the surreal world of politics.
The
latest data from Gallup and a slew of other national polls conducted this month
suggest that while Trump clearly benefited from a sort of
rally-'round-our-President effect in the early days of the pandemic's grips on
the country, that bump has now disappeared.
Gallup's
latest poll, released on Thursday, shows Trump's approval rating at 43% -- down
6 percentage points from where he was in late March in the same poll. As
Gallup's Justin McCarthy writes: "The six-point decline in the President's
approval rating is the sharpest drop Gallup has recorded for the Trump
presidency so far, largely because Trump's ratings have been highly
stable."
Why did Trump's numbers
drop?
Because Democrats and independents, who briefly warmed up to him amid the onset
of the pandemic, went back to feeling as they always have about him -- not
great. Trump is back in single-digit approval territory with Democrats (at 7%)
-- a drop of 6 points since the last Gallup poll. And less than 4 in 10 (39%)
of independents now approve of the job he is doing, down from 43% last month.
And it's not just Gallup. According to Real
Clear Politics poll data, the last 11 national polls have all shown Trump's
disapproval rating outstripping his approval number; his average approval
rating in those polls is 46% while his disapproval is 51%. The most recent CNN
poll -- released on April 8 -- showed Trump at 44% approval and 51%
disapproval.
The
reason for the drop -- just as the reason for his temporary rise -- seems
nearly certain to be perceptions of his handling of the coronavirus crisis. In
a new Pew national poll, two-thirds of respondents said they though he had
reacted "too slow" to the coronavirus pandemic. That same poll showed
a majority of Americans (52%) saying that Tump was making the situation seem
better than it actually was.
Always
keenly aware of his poll numbers, Trump has grown desperate for good news among
this recent slump. On Thursday, he tweeted this: ".@OANN Poll "Gives
President Trump a 52% Approval Rating in North Carolina, and a seven point lead
over (Sleepy) Joe Biden."
OANN
is the One America News Network, a pro-Trump "news" organization that
has positioned itself to the right of Fox News in the media firmament. A quick
search of a little thing I call the internet shows that OANN in fact does not
do any sort of polling. In fact, if you search for "OANN poll" the
link Google spits out brings you to an OANN page that says simply: "Polls.
It seems we can't find what you're looking for. Perhaps searching can
help." Riiiiiiight.
What
poll was Trump talking about then? It appears to be this one -- conducted by
Civitas, which bills itself as "North Carolina's most broadly supported
conservative policy organization." So, pretty thin gruel there for Trump.
What
the latest national poll numbers make clear is that a) any Trump bump from the
early days of coronavirus is over and b) the pandemic, politically speaking, is
not going to be the thing that saves Trump in November.
The
longer the fight against coronavirus has worn on, the more Trump's numbers have
returned to where they have always been. The only question is whether, as the
fight continues on, his handling (or lack thereof) of the coronavirus crisis
will actually drag his approval ratings below where they have been for the past
few years.
More on Chris:
COLUMBIA
JOURNALISM REVIEW reviews Chris Cillizza.
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